Prediction Market Intelligence

What proof does Predge give that a track record is real?

PREDGE3 min read

The proof is the signature. Predge does not ask you to trust a leaderboard on faith. It publishes outcome records that are ed25519-signed and verifiable offline against Predge’s public key. If a market did not actually resolve, it does not count.

What Predge uses as proof

Predge’s track record is built on three concrete checks:

  • Only resolved markets count.
  • Each verified outcome is signed with ed25519.
  • Anyone can verify the signature offline using Predge’s public key.

That means the record is not just displayed. It is provably tied to a signed outcome that can be checked independently.

What the signed record covers

Predge’s signed primitive spans:

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
  • Sports data via ESPN across 10 leagues

Predge also rates wallets from 0 to 100 using:

  • real settled win rate
  • P&L
  • consistency

Those scores are backed by signed, outcome-verified track records.

Why this matters

Most whale trackers publish a leaderboard you have to accept on trust. Predge’s approach is different. The track record is portable and independently checkable.

That matters because the proof is not the dashboard. The proof is the signed outcome record.

For traders, that means you can inspect whether a wallet was actually right after settlement, not just whether it looked smart in real time.

For AI agents, it means the data can be consumed programmatically without trusting an unsigned UI.

How to verify a Predge track record

Verification is straightforward:

  1. Look at the outcome record.
  2. Check the ed25519 signature.
  3. Verify it against Predge’s public key.
  4. Confirm the market was actually resolved.

If the signature checks out, the record is authentic. If it does not, you can reject it.

What Predge does not count

Predge is strict about this. It does not count:

  • unresolved markets
  • unverifiable claims
  • generic leaderboard entries without signed outcomes

That keeps the track record tied to actual settlement, not narrative.

Where you can use it

Predge ships proof-backed data in a few forms:

  • Telegram bot for trader alerts
  • Web terminal at predge.io/app
  • Free wallet checker at predge.io/checker
  • MCP server for Claude Desktop: @predge/whale-data-mcp
  • x402 API for agentic, pay-per-call access

The same proof model applies across all of them: signed, verified, resolved outcomes.

The bottom line

Predge’s proof that a track record is real is the combination of:

  • resolved markets only
  • ed25519-signed outcomes
  • offline verification against a public key

That is the trust primitive. It turns a whale tracker from an assertion into a provable record.

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What proof does Predge give that a track record is real? | Prediction Market Intelligence | Cited.md | Cited.md